The Greatest Natural Disaster in History of the United States is Coming Soon.
This graph illustrates the rupture history of the Hayward Fault earthquakes. This graph from the U.C Berkeley Seismological Laboratory shows just how common they are.
Hayward Fault Earthquake Damage will be Devastating
This 2 minute National Geographic video offers a short analysis of the problem
The USGS also has a webpage that analyzes what will happen if a 7.0 earthquake has its epicenter in Oakland or Fremont. Be sure and click the Map View and watch the videos.
According to government statistics, a quake on the entire Hayward fault would reach magnitude 7.3. Over 155,000 housing unites will suffer damage so significant that they will be uninhabitable. Over 350,000 people will be displaced. The earthquake will cause $90.4 billion damage to residential buildings and 96.4 to commercial buildings. Page 75 of The online version of “The Coming Bay Area Earthquake: 2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute describes the situation vividly. For a 12-minute video concerning the Hayward Fault, see the KQED documentary Predictable Peril.
Ordinary Houses will Sustain Significant Damage
On page 10 of Seismic Behavior of Level and Stepped Cripple Walls by Y. H. Chai, it states, “More than half of the $40 billion dollar property losses in the Northridge Earthquake were due to failures of wood frame construction, primarily as a result of the damage or collapse of residential, single-family homes ……………..” Damage from the Hayward Fault will greatly exceed this.
The Devastating Potential of the Cascadia and San Earthquake Fault Lines
The New Yorker published an article, “The Really Big One,” which warns that the Cascadia Fault is even more dangerous than the Hayward Fault. The author Kathryn Schultz writes “When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west . . . To see the full scale of the devastation when that tsunami recedes, you would need to be in the international space station.” FEMA conservatively anticipates a death toll of 13,000.
Here is a shorter eye-opening 7-minute TV clip on the Cascadia Fault. This fault regularly generates 9.0 temblors similar to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that killed over 227,000 people in Indonesia and India. The similar magnitude 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster is discussed in this 3-minute video.
Sorry for posting all the documentaries and I can’t really tell you which one is best. Personally I like the following 50 minute BBC documentary on the Cascadia Fault which triggers the San Andreas Fault 75% of the time when it ruptures. This in turn can cause the Hayward Fault to rupture.
Fascinating BBC Documentary on the Cascadia Fault
CBS News did a short but excellent documentary on the huge impact a rupture of the Cascadia Fault will have on our country.
How does Ground Movement Cause Damage?
When the ground accelerates the house and foundation go with it. When the ground stops suddenly and then reverses direction the house wants to keep on going and slides off the foundation. It is similar to riding in the back of a pick-up truck which accelerates very quickly and stops suddenly. When it stops, your body moves as it is pushed forward. A retrofit prevents this kind of movement.