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Earthquake Probabilities and History

The Greatest Natural Disaster in History of the United States is Coming Soon.

Hayward Fault running through U.C. Berkeley stadium

                        HAYWARD FAULT RUNNING THROUGH CENTER OF UC BERKELEY SPORTS STADIUM..

                                                              

The Hayward Fault can Rupture at any Moment

The history of Hayward Fault earthquakes can be seen in this graph from the  UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory.  The laboratory also publishes a FAQ page that will tell you everything you want to know about our the Hayward Fault and our seismic geology.

GRAPHIC HISTORY OF EARTHQUAKE ON THE HAYWARD FAULT LINE

GRAPHIC HISTORY OF EARTHQUAKE ON THE HAYWARD FAULT LINE AND IT HAS A REPEAT CYCLE OF 140 YEARS AND IS NOW 9 YEARS OVERDUE

How much Earthquake Damage will there Be?

This 2 minute video from the National Geographic offers a short analysis of the problem

It is expected that when the Hayward Fault ruptures there will be $165 billion in damage.  The chart below should give you some perspective on how much devastation this is.

 

CHART SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE AND DATES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA.  BY COMPARISON THE HAYWARD FAULT EARTHQUAKE WILL BE THE THIRD LARGEST CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE IN RECORDED HISTORY</span>

CHART SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE AND DATES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA.  BY COMPARISON THE HAYWARD FAULT EARTHQUAKE WILL BE THE THIRD LARGEST EARTHQUAKE IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY

The USGS has a webpage where you can see exactly where you are in relation to major faults such as the Hayward Fault.  When the webpage opens click on this icon and put your address in the search bar.

 

Hayward Fault

 

 

According to government statistics, a quake on the entire Hayward fault would reach magnitude 7.3.  It would leave over 155,000 housing units uninhabitable.  Over 350,000 people will be displaced.   Damage to residential buildings will be $90.4 billion; commercial buildings, another $96 billion.   See The Coming Bay Area Earthquake, page 75, by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.  For a 12-minute video concerning the Hayward Fault, see this KQED presentation.

THE HAYWARD FAULT IS CONNECTED TO A SERIES OF SMALLER FAULT THAT MIGHT ERUPT AT THE SAME TIME

THE HAYWARD FAULT IS CONNECTED TO A SERIES OF SMALLER FAULT THAT MIGHT ERUPT AT THE SAME TIME CREATING A 7.3 OR HIGHER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE

On page 10 of Seismic Behavior of Level and Stepped Cripple Walls by Y. H. Chai, it states, “More than half of the $40 billion dollar property losses in the Northridge Earthquake were due to failures of wood frame construction, primarily as a result of the damage or collapse of residential, single-family homes ……………..”  Damage from the Hayward Fault will greatly exceed this.

THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT IS QUITE DANGEROUS AND CAN CREATE AN EARTHQUAKE 8.0 OR MORE ON THE RICHTER SCALE

THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT IS QUITE DANGEROUS AND CAN CREATE AN EARTHQUAKE 8.0 OR MORE ON THE RICHTER SCALE

The Devastating Potential of the Cascadia and San Earthquake Fault Lines

New studies described in a New Yorker article, “The Really Big One,” warn that the Cascadia Fault is even more dangerous than the Hayward Fault.  Kathryn Schultz, the author, was awarded the 2016 Pulitzer Prize for Feature Writing.  “When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west . . . To see the full scale of the devastation when that tsunami recedes, you would need to be in the international space station.”  FEMA conservatively anticipates a death toll near 13,000.

Here is an eye-opening,  7-minute TV clip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone.    This fault regularly generates 9.0 temblors similar to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that killed over 227,000 people in Indonesia and India.  The 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster is discussed in this 3-minute video.

This 50 minute long BBC documentary on this earthquake fault also points out that it triggers the San Andreas Fault to rupture 75% of the time, which in turn can cause the Hayward Fault to rupture.

                                                        THIS  IS A FASCINATING VIDEO THAT EXPLORES THE HISTORY OF THE                                                                                 CASCADIA FAULT AND WHY WE SHOULD ALL BE WORRIED

DAMAGE LIKE THIS IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY IT THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE RUPTURES

DAMAGE LIKE THIS IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY IT THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE RUPTURES

CHART SHOWING THE HISTORY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE CASCADIA EARTHQUAKE TIME LINE

CHART SHOWING THE HISTORY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE CASCADIA EARTHQUAKE TIME LINE

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CASCADIA FAULT AND THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE THAT KILLED OVER 260,000 PEOPLE

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CASCADIA FAULT SHOWN ON THE LEFT AND THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE  ON THE LEFT THAT KILLED OVER 260,000 PEOPLE

 When the shaking starts

While the author of this article was employed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency he evaluated injuries and discovered that 99% of the injuries were caused when people tried to run out of the house.  While trying to stand up or run, people are thrown against a wall, appliances or down the stairs.  When the shaking starts, drop and crawl away from any object that may fall on you, cover your head, and stay there. If you have children, crawl to their aid, do not run.  Retrofitting will reduce the intensity of the shaking, but you will still be terrified but be aware there is no record for deaths in houses, except in hillside homes.If you live in one of these get out of there any way you can.

 

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