Hayward Fault Earthquakes: Probabilities and History in the Bay Area

The Greatest Natural Disaster in History of the United States is Coming Soon.

Hayward Fault running through U.C. Berkeley stadium

                        HAYWARD FAULT RUNNING THROUGH CENTER OF UC BERKELEY SPORTS STADIUM..

                                                              

The Hayward Fault Earthquakes Happen all the Time.

This graph illustrates the rupture history of the Hayward Fault earthquakes. This graph from the U.C Berkeley Seismological Laboratory  shows just how common they are. The laboratory also publishes a FAQ page that will tell you everything you want to know about our the Hayward Fault and our seismic geology.  This short KGO story about the State’s attempts to reduce its impact can be seen on this video.

GRAPHIC HISTORY OF HAYWARD FAULT EARTHQUAKES

GRAPHIC HISTORY OF EARTHQUAKE ON THE HAYWARD FAULT LINE AND IT HAS A REPEAT CYCLE OF 140 YEARS AND IS NOW 9 YEARS OVERDUE

Hayward Fault Earthquake Damage will be Devastating

This 2 minute National Geographic video offers a short analysis of the problem

The Hayward Fault will cause $165 billion in damage when it ruptures.  The chart below should give you some perspective on how much devastation this is.;

CHART SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE AND DATES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA.  BY COMPARISON THE HAYWARD FAULT EARTHQUAKE WILL BE THE THIRD LARGEST CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE IN RECORDED HISTORY</span>

CHART SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE AND DATES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA.  BY COMPARISON THE HAYWARD FAULT EARTHQUAKE WILL BE THE THIRD LARGEST EARTHQUAKE IN CALIFORNIA HISTORY

The USGS has a webpage where you can see exactly where you are in relation to the Hayward Fault.  When the webpage opens click on “Hayward Fault Map and Tour” and put your address in the search bar on the upper left.

The USGS also has a webpage that analyzes what will happen if a 7.0 earthquake has its epicenter is in Oakland or Fremont.

According to government statistics, a quake on the entire Hayward fault would reach magnitude 7.3.  Over 155,000 housing unites will suffer damage so significant that they will be  uninhabitable.  Over 350,000 people will be displaced.   The earthquake will cause $90.4 billion damage to residential buildings and 96.4 to commercial buildings.   Page 75 of The Coming Bay Area Earthquake, published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute describes the situation vividly.  For a 12-minute video concerning the Hayward Fault, see the KQED documentary  Predictable Peril.

THE HAYWARD FAULT IS CONNECTED TO A SERIES OF SMALLER FAULT THAT MIGHT ERUPT AT THE SAME TIME

THE HAYWARD FAULT IS CONNECTED TO A SERIES OF SMALLER FAULT THAT MIGHT ERUPT AT THE SAME TIME CREATING A 7.3 OR HIGHER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE

Ordinary Houses will Sustain Significant Damage

On page 10 of Seismic Behavior of Level and Stepped Cripple Walls by Y. H. Chai, it states, “More than half of the $40 billion dollar property losses in the Northridge Earthquake were due to failures of wood frame construction, primarily as a result of the damage or collapse of residential, single-family homes ……………..”  Damage from the Hayward Fault will greatly exceed this.

Image showing the San Andreas Fault with a red line on a map of California the cost of California

THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT IS QUITE DANGEROUS AND CAN CREATE AN EARTHQUAKE 8.0 OR MORE ON THE RICHTER SCALE

The Devastating Potential of the Cascadia and San Earthquake Fault Lines

The New Yorker published an article, “The Really Big One,” which warns that the Cascadia Fault is even more dangerous than the Hayward Fault.  The author Kathryn Schultz writes “When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west . . . To see the full scale of the devastation when that tsunami recedes, you would need to be in the international space station.”  FEMA conservatively anticipates a death toll of 13,000.

Here is a shorter eye-opening  7-minute TV clip on the Cascadia Fault.    This fault regularly generates 9.0 temblors similar to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that killed over 227,000 people in Indonesia and India.  The 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster is discussed in this 3-minute video.

Sorry for posting all the documentaries and I can’t really tell you which one is best.  Personally I like the following 50 minute BBC documentary on the Cascadia Fault which triggers the San Andreas Fault 75% of the time, which in turn can cause the Hayward Fault to rupture.

 

Yacht on top of building caused by Sumatra Earthquake

DAMAGE LIKE THIS IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY WHEN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE RUPTURES

CBS News did a short but excellent documentary on the huge impact a rupture of the Cascadia Fault will have on our country.

 

CHART SHOWING TIME LINE OF THE HISTORY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE CASCADIA FAULT

CHART SHOWING THE HISTORY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE CASCADIA EARTHQUAKE TIME LINE

Mirror images of the Sumatra and Cascadia Faults. The Hayward Fault earthquakes will be part of a rupture on the Cascadia Fault.

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CASCADIA FAULT SHOWN ON THE RIGHT AND THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE ON THE LEFT THAT KILLED OVER 260,000 PEOPLE

 Unlike the variables caused by ignorance of seismic retrofit science, the understanding of tectonic geology is based on good science.  It is hoped that this same science can be applied to seismic retrofit procedures and minimize deaths and injuries.  Time is running out.

How does Ground Movement Cause Damage?

MOVEMENT OF EARTH SHOWING HOW EARTHQUAKES DAMAGES HOUSES

MOVEMENT OF EARTH SHOWING HOW EARTHQUAKES DAMAGE HOUSES

When the ground accelerates the house and foundation go with it.  When the ground stops suddenly and then reverses direction the house wants to keep on going and slides off the foundation.  It is similar to riding in the back of a pick-up truck which accelerates very quickly and stops suddenly. When it stops, your body moves as it is pushed forward.  A retrofit prevents this movement.

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